Wind BeastTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2024
decks
3
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
8-9-3
overall winrate
47.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.4%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1376
· range 1164–1471
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1417
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.4% | -6.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
